The Leopard Solutions monthly law jobs report shows a mixed trend in law firm hiring compared to recent macroeconomic forecasts for the broader U.S. labor market, indicating a slight cooling but resilience overall.
For all new law firm job postings (across all regions), the actual number (1,255) exceeded predictions (1,101) by 14%, suggesting stronger-than-expected hiring demand within the legal sector. In the U.S. specifically, the gap is even wider, with actual postings (986) surpassing predictions (842) by 17%. These figures contrast the broader October labor report, where the U.S. added only 12,000 jobs, partially due to external disruptions such as ongoing strikes and hurricane impacts. The unemployment rate, however, remained stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that, while cooling, maintains underlying strength.
Breaking down the lateral market by role reveals a contrasting trend: actual lateral moves for Associates, Counsels, and Partners fell short of predictions. Across all regions, Partner lateral moves showed a 14% drop from expectations, while Associate and Counsel roles were down by 2% and 5%, respectively. This pattern is consistent in the U.S. market alone, where Partner lateral moves saw the most significant discrepancy, with an 18% decline compared to forecasts. These lower-than-anticipated figures for higher-level lateral roles suggest a more cautious approach from law firms when expanding senior leadership through lateral hires amid economic uncertainty. However, the active demand for lateral moves among more junior roles indicates that firms may still be focused on bringing in fresh talent to support long-term growth and operational needs.
Overall, the legal sector shows resilience with higher-than-expected new job postings, especially in the U.S., which aligns somewhat with broader labor market stability. However, the decline in higher-tier roles like Partners may not be a cause for concern but rather a reflection of strategic adjustments by law firms in response to evolving economic conditions and market uncertainty. It’s important to note that our numbers could be slightly inflated due to the dynamic nature of our database, with additions made weekly. In future analyses, we aim to monitor a consistent subset of firms to provide a more precise, apples-to-apples comparison.
Leopard Solutions’ predictions are based on our proprietary algorithm, which quantifies job opening data by analyzing the seasonality of employment opportunities and trends observed over recent months, giving unique insights into current and future market trends.
