Lateral job postings were significantly overestimated for August, likely due to the otherwise strong summer months when postings consistently surged. The total drop of 29% across all categories marks the steepest single-month decline against predictions this year. One factor that could explain the off-target prediction is the outlier month of August 2023, when lateral job postings unexpectedly soared to 4,182—more than double the number at the start of the summer.
Partner postings were overestimated by a third across all firms tracked and by 30% when limited to U.S. firms. Associate predictions fell short by more than 500, marking the largest gap since March and more than double the discrepancy seen in recent months.
New job postings in August were more understated. The actual figure came in just under predictions—1,088 compared to the forecasted 1,095, a deviation of only 1%, likely influenced by spikes in prior months. U.S. job postings still exceeded projections by 13.
September will be a crucial month to determine whether August’s decline was just a temporary blip or if the summer job surge is ending on a weaker note.
If we total all USA lateral job postings for attorneys from June through the end of August and compare them to predictions, there is now a deficit of 114 jobs, reflecting a 1.4% decline. With 21 days remaining in the period, six of which have already passed, there is limited time to lift the season out of the red. Zooming out from a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. labor market saw a rebound in August, with 142,000 jobs added after July’s revised figure fell to a concerning 89,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This could bode well for law firms, as a rising tide lifts all boats.
Leopard Solutions predictions are derived from our proprietary algorithm that quantifies job opening figures by analyzing the seasonality of employment opportunities and the trajectory of market trends observed in the preceding months.
