September marked a topsy-turvy month for law firm job expansion, but overall, the positive trends outweighed the negatives. It also signaled a rebound from the somewhat tepid close of the summer.
While fall typically sees a slight slowdown in hiring compared to the peak summer months, job growth in September proved resilient. New roles across all firms we track exceeded projections by 1.2%. Notably, when isolating U.S.-based firms, job growth surged, surpassing projections by a more robust 7.8%.
Lateral movement in September was notably more unpredictable, with overall firm activity falling short of projections by 17.2% compared to predictions made at the end of August. However, U.S.-based lateral movements defied expectations, exceeding projections by 8.5%.
This unevenness was also evident across attorney categories. U.S. associate lateral hires outperformed forecasts with an 8.5% increase, while Of Counsel recruitments trailed, falling nearly 6% short of the benchmark. Partner-level lateral moves showed a modest but positive uptick.
Zooming out to U.S. economic news across sectors, for comparative purposes, with the ADP employment report already released and initial jobless claims in, the focus now shifts to the September Jobs Report, scheduled for release tomorrow. Economists are predicting an increase of around 145,000 jobs in September, with expectations that the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2%.
Weekly jobless claims rose by 6,000, bringing the total to 225,000, according to Thursday’s Labor Department report. This figure exceeded the anticipated 221,000 claims, though jobless claims remain relatively low. The four-week moving average reached its lowest level since June.
Leopard Solutions’ predictions are based on our proprietary algorithm, which quantifies job opening data by analyzing the seasonality of employment opportunities and trends observed over recent months, giving unique insights into current and future market trends.
